Ukraine. Russia. U.S. European Union.

Response to a Friend’s Facebook post.

I DON'T don't get the narrative that President Trump being cordial with Russia is bad for the world (according to Time, NY Times, Washington Post, Rolling Stone in so many words). So would that mean a return to the Cold War would make the world peaceful? Nope.

       Meanwhile, I thought, for a moment, that Volodymyr Zelensky was fine with the end of war. Yet when France et al protested Mr Trump's chat with Vladimir Putin, Mr Z again changed his mind and whined that Ukraine will be ignored in the peace negotiations. 

       Fact is, the EU was concerned after Donald Trump mentioned U.S. interest in Ukraine's "rare earth." Of course that was the rationale for the war: Ukraine's massive natural resources (including who'd run natural gas company Naftogaz). The EU invested a lot in this war, as well, via $145 billion in aid since the start of war in 2022.

       But Europe also needs Russia's energy imports. In 2021, Russia supplied 75 percent and 45 percent of the region's natural gas and oil needs, respectively. Meanwhile, E.U. is collectively mired at 1 percent economic growth. 

       The West, especially Europe, wants Ukraine's natural wealth and a war is the perfect tool to get a handle of those and Volodymyr is more than willing to pawn his country for this quid pro quo as he enriches himself. (Refer to the Kyiv leader's ill-gotten wealth stashed in British Virgin Islands, Belize and Cyprus + real estates in London). 

       America and Europe want Ukraine's wealth. It just so happened that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have contrasting playbooks on how to get them. Joe via a war so he (with help from EU leaders) goaded Russia to a war. Donald's strategy is trade negotiation, not war.    

       I don't think Russia is interested in Ukraine's natural resources though. Coal-rich Donbas seeks to secede, it's their decision. But I believe war will end, the U.S. and EU will talk about profit share in rare earth, how to run Naftogaz in a partnership etcetera, and Russia gets Nord Stream 2 to operate and sell energy to the EU again. Volodymyr Zelensky will be eased out via election or regime-change. ☮️☮️☮️

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

NY Times: “What’s Behind the Protests in the Country of Georgia?” The issue: Georgia’s plan for European Union membership. If I am still in my 20s, I'd probably be so gullible enough to believe the current Georgia tempest is isolated from the bigger geopolitical picture. Right? Regardless of Washington hawks’ insistence to keep Ukraine burning, that war is bound to end next year. And so we have Georgia. Oh well. 🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪

NY Times: “Mexican Authorities Seize 20 Million Doses of Fentanyl in Record Haul.” This developed after Donald Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico if the country did not crack down on fentanyl. Would Claudia Sheinbaum's initial response to The D’s “threats” carry on? Fentanyl is a cartel product. And drug cartels facilitate massive migrants’ trek to the U.S. borders, which went hugely unchecked in Joe Biden's years. 🇺🇸☮️🇲🇽

New York Times: “Mexican Cartels Lure Chemistry Students to Make Fentanyl.” And adds: “Criminals turn college campuses into recruitment hubs, recruiting chemistry students in Mexico with big paydays.” Don’t we know that already? And of course, Walter White a.k.a. Heisenberg was a high school chemistry teacher. “Breaking Bad” was immensely popular because it is very truthful, factual even. 💉💊🇲🇽

New York Times: “Oxford’s 2024 Word of the Year Is…” The word is “brain rot.” The shortlist: “Lore,” “demure,” “slop.” Notice that these so-called “words of the year” usually connote negative descriptions or fringy, underground sub-meanings. Or simply modern lingo spit. Who decides on those things, by the way. And what is the sense? So it is now cool (crispy?) to say a friend suffers from “brain rot,” I guess? 😏😒🤨

AP: “With Assad Challenged, a Push to Cut Syria’s Ties to Iran Grows More Unlikely.” The Middle East conflagration gets more complicated. Before the Hamas attack of Israel in early October last year, Syria was welcomed back by the Arab League. That'd after Iran and League power Saudi Arabia shook hands, on China's intercession. Meanwhile, Syria's top trade partner is Turkey. Iran's top oil buyer is China. 

       News adds: “Even as Israel bombarded Syria, officials say the U.S. and Gulf countries were working to weaken its president’s alliance with Tehran. Rebels’ shock advance has dampened those hopes.” ☮️☮️☮️

New York Times: “Russian General Calls U.S. Chairman of Joint Chiefs.” News adds that the two men “discussed a number of global and regional security issues, to include the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.” Because despite Joe Biden's moves to escalate fighting in Ukraine as he leaves office, Donald Trump's team is already laying out a contrary groundwork. Let's see how things play out as 2025 marches in. 🇷🇺☮️🇺🇦

NY Times: “Tensions Rise Among Russia’s Elite as Economic Growth Slows.” But, it seems, the Kremlin won’t back away from its war effort as the challenge heightens. Russia has an ample (economic) safety net. And BRICS bros continually buying Moscow's oil and natural gas are very helpful. But a longer war and additional money for military hardware isn't good. But that is also the European Union’s economic fact right now. 🇷🇺☮️🇷🇺

Washington Post: “Inside the effort to market Russia and Putin to Africans.” More lenders, more investors to choose from, beyond traditional Western money, is a good thing. Russia's FDIs in Africa have risen to $24.5 billion this year although much lower than Chinese and U.S. commitments. In September, China offered a new $51 billion funding to the continent as U.S. total FDI in 41 countries dropped to $44.8 this year. 🇷🇺☮️🇷🇺

New York Times: “Russia and Iran Pledge Support for Syria’s al-Assad Against Advancing Rebels.” I go back to my college years when we, students of global politics, used to discourse who was funding who in those wars. Sure, these days we point at mostly Iran when we talk of terror groups. Yet (especially) in the last decade, significant upheavals altered some behaviors in the region. So I remain thinking. ☮️☮️☮️

       News adds: “In just a few days, a patchwork of rebel forces has seized control of a broad stretch of land in the west and northwest of Syria. But it’s unclear just how much support Syria’s weakened allies can provide.”

Rolling Stone: “Ex-Aides Say Gabbard Regularly Consumed Russian State Media: Report.” Members of the intelligence community are raising concerns about Mr Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Intelligence Community? Ms Gabbard consumed maybe too much time reading up on Russians? A concern, really? Or what if she wasn't glued to anything Russian? Am I lost here? Can we please define what “intel” really is? 🏛🗽🏛

MORE: I Me Mine Stuff.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Or written years ago, unedited/not updated.

I ALWAYS say I am a very courageous guy. I am not scared to interface my truths or my little me in any given situation, circumstances, diversity. But that doesn't mean I am a very confident dude or a person beaming with grandiose self-esteem. I write because I am not very trustful of my spoken word. I mumble. I ruminate as I talk. I ramble. So I project myself in so many ways in relative quiet—art, literature, cooking, organizing events. I am not as proud as others in terms of my physical attributes. I am short and skinny etc. I also believe in so many ways that I am just weird and oblique and that I get scary and dark. You know, the fear of not knowing an individual who seems to be so different. 

       So before I could even “fully introduce” myself, I already frightened people away, uh huh. I wrestle with my acute inferiority complex yet no one who knows me wouldn't believe that at all. “Pasckie, you rock out there! You are all over the place!” I always crack silly jokes that elicit unfeigned laughter. Yet the only moments that I feel really belonged and attached is when I read poetry in front of an intimate crowd. I relish the moment up front on the mic. 

       Yet still, after each show—I gravitate back to The Batcave and wish that warmth stays. But you wouldn't know that, ain't you? Until I share this drama. In fact, right now I am painting with radiant colors as the Bee Gees (again!) provides the dancing vibe. 🌬💨🥹

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page. 

Washington Post: “Harris’s advisers blame everything but themselves for their loss.” Their aggro “vilify!” (sic) strategies didn't work, obviously. Of course, such a negative tactic won't ever work, especially if the pitch was meant to cover or blur current (especially economic) realities. Has the Left already abandoned meticulous groundwork, persuasive advocacy, and calm efforts to build tactical alliances–as in the past? 🏛🗽🏛

Washington Post: “Missing woman may have fallen into sinkhole while searching for cat.” I don't know. I can't judge her. I am so deeply attached to Ching and Fizz that I wouldn't probably stop searching if ever they get lost. Pretty much a missing child. You don’t sleep unless you find the cat. No amount of “your cat will show up soon…” will ever calm me down. So I feel for the woman. I hope they find her and the cat soon. 😢🐈😩

New York Sun: “Musks’s Department of Government Efficiency Highlights Current Spending of $150 Billion on Migrants.” Hmmm. I guess, many agency bosses are nervous of Mr Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's “good government” office. Military spending, immigration budget. Next? Student loan forgiveness? But I'll see what's up with huge-ass bailouts to corporations, though those could be alibi'ed as loans. (Photo: IAMA.) 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “South Korea President Declares Martial Law, Then Backs Down.” / “Martial Law in South Korea Tests Biden and a Key U.S. Alliance.” Yoon Suk Yeol is in severe panic mode. I try to evade the thought but Mr Yoon’s erratic behavior seems ushered in by the change of POTUS. An obvious Joe Biden lapdog, he differed with his predecessor Moon Jae-in, whose pacifism vibes with Mr Trump's playbook. 🇰🇷🇰🇷🇰🇷

NY Sun: “Renewed Fighting in Syria Puts at Risk Trump’s Hope of Pacifying the Globe.” Joe Biden and his hawks are obviously worsening situations (in the Middle East and Ukraine). Haven’t those people seen worse in the past? The incoming President leads in “pacifying the globe,” which the outgoing President helped bring into chaos. Weird. But, I guess, that's just what America is all about? Pacify or provoke? ☮️☮️☮️

New York Times: “Biden’s Pardon for His Son Dishonors the Office.” / “Democrats Sharply Criticize Biden’s Pardon of His Son.” Democratic Party zealots, of course, divert the issue to other issues, such as Donald Trump's pardon of so and so. As though other POTUSes didn't also pardon whoever. And so they totally ignore why Joe Biden's pardon of his erring son stands out. Especially after he said he won’t. 🏛🗽🏛

New York Sun: “California’s Attorney General Wants Holiday Shoppers To Report Stores Lacking ‘Gender-Neutral’ Toy Options.” Honestly, I don't know what a “gender-neutral” toy is. The dress? Skin color? The names of the toys? Nope? I googled some samples. Chicken and pig puppets, $55; Captain Calamari, $15.99; discovery blocks, $29.99; wood baby gym, $90. But I still don't know what a “gender-neutral” toy is. 😏😒🤨

NY Times: “Trump Won More of New York’s Votes. Did He Win More of Its Love, Too?” Trump! We don't have to “love” him to like him or vote for him. He is not your dad or drinking buddy. I don't think I'd last 10 minutes when (if ever) given a change to sit in front of Mr Trump. But after his first 4 years, I can't question his leadership mojo, especially his foreign affairs playbook. He is POTUS, not my pool hall pal. 

       News adds: “The city tolerated Donald J. Trump, and then it loathed him. Now, some New Yorkers have begun to embrace him. The Kid from Queens couldn’t be happier.” 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “How a Tourist Paradise Became a Drug-Trafficking Magnet.” Costa Rica’s lush rainforests are being infiltrated by cartels on a quest to find new trafficking routes to evade the authorities. The illegal drug industry is a massive trade that operates as a typical farm to production line to distribution channels to consumer hands. A complex web of economic activity. And the U.S. stays as its focal market base. 🧲💉⛰

Time: “Tons of viruses live in your toothbrush and showerhead.” Don’t we know that already? Current journalism is so consistently good at pitching fear-factor narratives, ain’t it? Mowing grass, blowing leaves. Bad. Garlic and onions, exposure to sunlight, hand washing clothes sans “protective” gloves. All bad. Etcetera. Media’s experts coax us to pause and think again. Well, what about kissing lips to lips? 🪥🛀🪒

“What happened to NAFTA?”

Facebook friend: “What happened to NAFTA?” 

From my chat with friends on Facebook.

NAFTA  or the North American Free Trade Agreement was "replaced" in July 2020. It is now called USMCA or United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement. Critics say NAFTA led to job losses and wage stagnation due to many U.S. companies moving to Mexico; obvious reasons. USMCA vowed to fix that. What happened? Then President Donald Trump initiated USMCA but since he lost in the election to Joe Biden in 2020, he wasn't really able to implement the "repair" of the "unfair" trade exchange. 

       What happened when President Biden took over? A record number of illegal migrants crossed the border. I guess that’d be Mexico's response: Send the U.S. more workers, poorly paid and untaxed. And Joe's version of the deal was let 'em in so U.S. firms would have more "convenient" workers, untaxed and measly paid, but paid for by taxpayer money so they could stay while waiting for asylum, if ever. (If they get asylum, they get paid the legal way, of course, as workers). 

       The POTUS at the time of NAFTA’s  inception in 1994 was Bill Clinton. He also signed pretty much the same deal with China in 2000; with Jiang Zemin. Same result. U.S. companies moved to China. Mr Trump tried to fix it via his trade pact with Xi Jinping or modification of the deal in January 2020. But (again) Joe Biden took over as POTUS before the new agreements were implemented. From that point? 

       Mr Biden sent Treasury chief Janet Yellen and State secretary Antony Blinken to Beijing on two separate occasions, twice each, but no "rewrite" or whatever deal was signed or agreed upon. Joe sent a new crack economic team in October, I think, but the CCP opted to wait till November 5 was over. 

       Fast forward, post-November 5. Mr Trump expects to sit with Xi again so before that happens, Donald issues tariff “threats,” which was actually somehow included in the agreed pact in 2020 but Joe opted not to abide by it. Some say it was China that refused to abide etcetera. So Trump's "threats" are basically new pre-chess moves before the negotiation actually happens.
      Meanwhile, back to Mexico: Before he sits, Donald Trump issues tariff threats as well to President Claudia Sheinbaum, pressuring her to stop migrants from crossing to the U.S. from her end. Logic: Migrants would find it hard to cross if they are already stopped at Darien Pass or Rio Grande or the desert leading to the borders. Weeks ago, Mexico responded by stopping two trucks of migrants in Mexico reportedly carrying fentanyl etcetera. (Chess move by Mexico.) 

       We can now add the cartel issue and largely ineffective Merida Initiative (created in 2008) to the insight. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau talked with Mr Trump as well a few weeks ago. Scant details were reported per their talks though. Canada is the U.S. top trading partner. Etc etcetera. 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽

Free Trade and Stuff.

From my chat with friends on Facebook.

Free trade. Should be. Sans kickass economic and political textbook lingo, let me offer an insight based on history to current geopolitics. Fair trade. Cool. 

       Yet "unfair" ways such as market dominance and inequality of bargaining power or info control have always been dominated by the West. True, (Scottish) Adam Smith coined the term in the 16th century yet those that refused to join the Western monopoly (British East India Company?) were forced to. 

       In Asia, we can refer to the two opium wars in China and Admiral Perry's "gunboat diplomacy" in Japan in the 1800s. And per Bretton Woods of 1944 at the tailend of World War II, that market/negotiating dominance was cemented via IMF and World Bank and the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. 

       In the Middle East, that market rule was laid out via "arms for oil" as integral chips in bilateral agreements (think the Rockefellers and J. Paul Getty, for example). And so when China formally joined WTO in 2001, BRICS was born in 2009, the Arab world "revolted" via Arab Spring (started 2010) and Russia joined WTO in 2012, Western capitalists got super worried. 

       Add that China's 5 huge state-owned banks balanced IMF etc al and again China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies and formed the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) two weeks after Joe Biden won as POTUS in 2020, the West resorted to its old, antiquated tactics to influence trade agreements: Military brinkmanship and proxy war. 💸🏢💸