Saturday, January 4, 2025

“What happened to NAFTA?”

Facebook friend: “What happened to NAFTA?” 

From my chat with friends on Facebook.


NAFTA  or the North American Free Trade Agreement was "replaced" in July 2020. It is now called USMCA or United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement. Critics say NAFTA led to job losses and wage stagnation due to many U.S. companies moving to Mexico; obvious reasons. USMCA vowed to fix that. What happened? Then President Donald Trump initiated USMCA but since he lost in the election to Joe Biden in 2020, he wasn't really able to implement the "repair" of the "unfair" trade exchange. 



       What happened when President Biden took over? A record number of illegal migrants crossed the border. I guess that’d be Mexico's response: Send the U.S. more workers, poorly paid and untaxed. And Joe's version of the deal was let 'em in so U.S. firms would have more "convenient" workers, untaxed and measly paid, but paid for by taxpayer money so they could stay while waiting for asylum, if ever. (If they get asylum, they get paid the legal way, of course, as workers). 

       The POTUS at the time of NAFTA’s  inception in 1994 was Bill Clinton. He also signed pretty much the same deal with China in 2000; with Jiang Zemin. Same result. U.S. companies moved to China. Mr Trump tried to fix it via his trade pact with Xi Jinping or modification of the deal in January 2020. But (again) Joe Biden took over as POTUS before the new agreements were implemented. From that point? 

       Mr Biden sent Treasury chief Janet Yellen and State secretary Antony Blinken to Beijing on two separate occasions, twice each, but no "rewrite" or whatever deal was signed or agreed upon. Joe sent a new crack economic team in October, I think, but the CCP opted to wait till November 5 was over. 

       Fast forward, post-November 5. Mr Trump expects to sit with Xi again so before that happens, Donald issues tariff “threats,” which was actually somehow included in the agreed pact in 2020 but Joe opted not to abide by it. Some say it was China that refused to abide etcetera. So Trump's "threats" are basically new pre-chess moves before the negotiation actually happens.
      Meanwhile, back to Mexico: Before he sits, Donald Trump issues tariff threats as well to President Claudia Sheinbaum, pressuring her to stop migrants from crossing to the U.S. from her end. Logic: Migrants would find it hard to cross if they are already stopped at Darien Pass or Rio Grande or the desert leading to the borders. Weeks ago, Mexico responded by stopping two trucks of migrants in Mexico reportedly carrying fentanyl etcetera. (Chess move by Mexico.) 

       We can now add the cartel issue and largely ineffective Merida Initiative (created in 2008) to the insight. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau talked with Mr Trump as well a few weeks ago. Scant details were reported per their talks though. Canada is the U.S. top trading partner. Etc etcetera. 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽


Friday, January 3, 2025

Free Trade and Stuff.

From my chat with friends on Facebook.


Free trade. Should be. Sans kickass economic and political textbook lingo, let me offer an insight based on history to current geopolitics. Fair trade. Cool. 

       Yet "unfair" ways such as market dominance and inequality of bargaining power or info control have always been dominated by the West. True, (Scottish) Adam Smith coined the term in the 16th century yet those that refused to join the Western monopoly (British East India Company?) were forced to. 



       In Asia, we can refer to the two opium wars in China and Admiral Perry's "gunboat diplomacy" in Japan in the 1800s. And per Bretton Woods of 1944 at the tailend of World War II, that market/negotiating dominance was cemented via IMF and World Bank and the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. 

       In the Middle East, that market rule was laid out via "arms for oil" as integral chips in bilateral agreements (think the Rockefellers and J. Paul Getty, for example). And so when China formally joined WTO in 2001, BRICS was born in 2009, the Arab world "revolted" via Arab Spring (started 2010) and Russia joined WTO in 2012, Western capitalists got super worried. 

       Add that China's 5 huge state-owned banks balanced IMF etc al and again China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies and formed the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) two weeks after Joe Biden won as POTUS in 2020, the West resorted to its old, antiquated tactics to influence trade agreements: Military brinkmanship and proxy war. 💸🏢💸