Response to Facebook posts by friends.
FB Friend: President Bongbong Marcos is due to visit India, a rising power in the region and a huge market of more than 1 billion people. India can be a natural ally, like the U.S. and Japan because of its conflict with China
ME: Other than the media drama that U.S. journalism narrates, I don't think India has conflicts with its BRICS partner China. But the Philippines can trade with both giants and the U.S. sans intrigues. Just do business. The Philippines' relatively fine 5+ percent economic growth will carry on if Manila doesn't contaminate its trade relations with political asides.
FB Friend: India and China have border disputes in the Himalayas and occasionally exchanged artillery. India resented Chinese Navy presence in the Indian Ocean through a base and presence in rival Pakistan. China does not welcome Indian Navy presence in the South China Sea, criticizing naval drills with the Philippines.
ME: These border disputes date back years, mostly rooted in British colonial era demarcations: 1962 Sino-Indian War, 1967 Nathu La and Cho La, 1987 Sumdorong Chu standoff etc etcetera. Even dating back to the Opium Wars of the 17th century or when the British meddled in the region via the British East Indian Company. There was a quarrel in 2020-2021. Yet, at least from the time both countries forged a trade alliance via BRIC in 2001 (with Brazil and Russia), growth in diplomatic and economic influence has increased the significance of their bilateral relationship. Between 2008 and 2021, China has been India's largest trading partner, and the two countries have also extended their strategic and military relations. But true animosities happen but unless the West meddles and trouble-mongers, these guys stay relatively cool.
Note that Mr Trump shuffles Washington's hawkish girth via slick trade pitch: He sold arms in the Middle East as he forges peace and de-escalated the Iran/Israel tempest, sold arms to EU/NATO instead of sending what US Congress last approved in Ukraine aid last year, and of course, he sent his Defense chief Pete Hegseth to sell arms in Asia. (Japan was an early taker, hence PM Ishiba's party lost.) What I see in this rehashed (military) brinkmanship is more arms sales. With or without wars, or during little wars, arms are sold. Meanwhile, why not try to create a fissure between China and India? Trump is amidst trade negotiations with China as he plans to visit Beijing by the end of the year, possibly for a second trade pact with Xi Jinping.
So he looks at India as a variation in his chess game; he can also look at Indonesia, actually. But I don't think China and India are that dumb not to know about the rabble-rouse. Indonesia is also BRICS). Sure, these giants can always parade their military machismo; that's always been the case in the South China Sea in the advent of China. But the shudder didn't explode as what normally happens in and around the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf. ☮️☮️☮️
