Friday, October 20, 2023

Geopolitics and Stuff.

Facebook Homepage Response.


Reply to my post: “We have more at stake to lose in Ukraine that to Africa. If Ukraine falls into the hands of Putin, he will attack Poland and invade all of Eastern Europe until Europe is so weak and ripe for the picking. Remember, we helped the Brits and French topple the Nazis otherwise Hitler would have taken over.” 


First, the parallel/linear take per 1930s/40s Hitler and current events don't apply anymore. Lots of geopolitical alignments and economic crossovers have already taken place, at least, since 2001–as globalized trade anchors on computer technology takes over the stereotypical ally/non-ally or Left/Right paradigms are now blurred. So we have to reread the signs and realities. 



       Should we start with the discovery of oil in the desert to J. Paul Getty’s ventures in Saudi Arabia in late 1940s to the start of “arms for oil” bilateral deals in the Middle East to the Bretton Woods summit in 1944 to Suez Canal crisis of the 1950s onto China’s entry to WTO in 2001 and Russia in 2012. Etc etcetera. Then we can look at G7 and the resurgent BRICS. 

       Secondly, you are in a way saying or accentuating that America/West is protecting their vast economic interests in Ukraine, which of course, is greased up by political narratives that take us away from trade facts? Ukraine is super wealthy with natural resources but post-1991, corruption has stunted its growth. Unemployment is double digits so some 4 million Ukrainians worked in Russia before the war. But indeed via focus on Eastern Europe, the West hits a double target. The anti Russia fervor heats up (good for election pitch). 

       Meanwhile, again post Cold War, Russia emerged as an economic power, thereby owning the European energy market over OPEC and the U.S. Russia's oil/gas market is Europe per se so even if Ukraine et al buys US/OPEC oil/natural gas, Russia already had a potent market. And with Nord Stream 2 up and running, that'd also serve China's Belt and Road Initiative RI expansionism. 

       Ergo: These wars are not about who is evil and who is saint. These wars are about who controls the economic roost. But sans the goading of Russia to invade Ukraine in Feb 2022, which didn't work with Taiwan, BRICS is all about trade. G7 is all about war/NATO.

       Meantime, why Africa? Hint: Some 6 million people perish in Africa from a dozen or so deadly diseases, before Covid hit in 2019/2020. Poverty rate is around 70 percent. But sure, why would America bother with Africa? Complex. Why would America give more aid to Ukraine over South Sudan, which is also at war? ☮️☯️☮️


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