Response to a Friend’s Facebook post.
I DON'T don't get the narrative that President Trump being cordial with Russia is bad for the world (according to Time, NY Times, Washington Post, Rolling Stone in so many words). So would that mean a return to the Cold War would make the world peaceful? Nope.
Meanwhile, I thought, for a moment, that Volodymyr Zelensky was fine with the end of war. Yet when France et al protested Mr Trump's chat with Vladimir Putin, Mr Z again changed his mind and whined that Ukraine will be ignored in the peace negotiations.
Fact is, the EU was concerned after Donald Trump mentioned U.S. interest in Ukraine's "rare earth." Of course that was the rationale for the war: Ukraine's massive natural resources (including who'd run natural gas company Naftogaz). The EU invested a lot in this war, as well, via $145 billion in aid since the start of war in 2022.
But Europe also needs Russia's energy imports. In 2021, Russia supplied 75 percent and 45 percent of the region's natural gas and oil needs, respectively. Meanwhile, E.U. is collectively mired at 1 percent economic growth.
The West, especially Europe, wants Ukraine's natural wealth and a war is the perfect tool to get a handle of those and Volodymyr is more than willing to pawn his country for this quid pro quo as he enriches himself. (Refer to the Kyiv leader's ill-gotten wealth stashed in British Virgin Islands, Belize and Cyprus + real estates in London).
America and Europe want Ukraine's wealth. It just so happened that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have contrasting playbooks on how to get them. Joe via a war so he (with help from EU leaders) goaded Russia to a war. Donald's strategy is trade negotiation, not war.
I don't think Russia is interested in Ukraine's natural resources though. Coal-rich Donbas seeks to secede, it's their decision. But I believe war will end, the U.S. and EU will talk about profit share in rare earth, how to run Naftogaz in a partnership etcetera, and Russia gets Nord Stream 2 to operate and sell energy to the EU again. Volodymyr Zelensky will be eased out via election or regime-change. ☮️☮️☮️
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